Insights · Market Intelligence
GTA Industrial MarketOutlook 2025.
The GTA industrial market has normalised from the extraordinary conditions of 2021–2022. This report summarises current conditions across key submarkets and what principals should expect for the remainder of 2025.
Market Conditions: Where We Are Now
Vacancy Has Risen.
Quality Still Trades.
GTA industrial vacancy increased from historic lows of under 1% in 2022 to approximately 5–6% across the broader market by mid-2025. The headline number obscures a significant bifurcation: modern, high-clear buildings with dock loading in core locations continue to attract strong tenant interest; older, low-clear product is experiencing extended vacancy periods in some submarkets.
Net rents have pulled back from peak asking levels of $22–$28/SF in certain 2022 transactions, stabilising in the $16–$22/SF range for quality product depending on submarket. Asking rents often lag transaction rents, which requires buyers and tenants to work with brokers who have access to current deal data rather than listed inventory.
Submarket Breakdown
Core, 401 Corridor,
and 400-North.
Toronto core (east of Dufferin, west of DVP) remains the tightest submarket — sub-2% effective vacancy for functional product. Rents hold at $30–$40+ for well-located, modern assets. Mississauga Airport Corporate Centre remains the GTA's most liquid industrial market: highest velocity, highest rent, deepest buyer pool.
Simcoe County and Durham Region continue to absorb eastward/northward migration from space-constrained GTA core markets. Both submarkets offer 30–50% pricing discounts relative to Mississauga and represent the most compelling value for buyers and tenants with location flexibility.
What Principals Should Do
Buyers: Move Decisively.
Sellers: Price Correctly.
For buyers: the window of peak pricing has closed. Quality assets at realistic cap rates are transacting. Off-market opportunities have increased as vendors who do not need to sell avoid the public process. Submit acquisition criteria to Lucero to access mandates that do not reach the open market.
For sellers: the era of pricing above replacement cost and finding a buyer within 30 days is largely over for the broad market. Assets that are priced correctly relative to current comparable transactions are still selling. Assets that are priced based on 2022 comparables are not. Lucero provides frank valuations to help owners understand where they stand before committing to a process.